Some people are starting to predict a collapse of generative AIs, but I am perhaps more skeptical of the AI skeptics than of AI itself. The fact is that nobody, even the AI gods, don't know for sure. Butterfly effects are everywhere. It is difficult to predict the future, not only for AI (predictive AIs have bad track records) but also for humans.
Having said that, it may be argued that the road from intelligence (natural or artificial) to economic prosperity is not straightforward. Intelligent people do not necessarily make a lot of money. The correlation between IQ and income, if any, is very weak. Even if AI makes great progress from here, it does not necessarily follow that individuals or companies employing AI would be more productive.
The key missing link would be the embodiment of intelligence. Even if there is high intelligence, there need to be cleverly crafted schemes to make it socially and economically relevant. A newly discovered theorem in mathematics, for example, might provide brand new encryption schemes. In order for it to be materialized, certain sets of requirements need to be satisfied. The same goes for the road from AI to new cures of cancer, innovative ways to curb aging, and realization of nuclear fusion, all of which, needless to say, would provide huge utility and result in economic gains.
The benefits of AI are indirect compared to new energy resources. Right now, humans are converting a lot of energy into a huge amount of compute in the hope to achieve AGI and ASI. Even if humans are successful in that feat, ways to employ the superb intelligence to increase utility need to be considered. The societal and economic embodiment of AI towards increased utility would be part of the AI alignment schemes in general, and one of the most crucial challenges of our time.
No comments:
Post a Comment